Are Russia And NATO At The Verge Of War Over Ukraine?

Russia is building up troops along the Ukrainian border since earlier this year. About 100,000 troops are present along the Ukrainian border. Russia did this once before earlier this year in April. US officials say this buildup is for a large-scale push into Ukraine. This build-up is for an invasion of Ukraine from multiple locations.

Refugee And Migrant Crises In Belarus Along The Poland Border

European Union and Russia are blaming each other for the refugees and migrant crises in Belarus.

Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki statement on refugees and migrants crises

“This attack which Lukashenko is conducting has its mastermind in Moscow. The mastermind is President Putin.”

But analysts do not agree with the statement of the Polish Prime Minister. They think Belarus is taking revenge for European Union sanctions.

President of Lithuania said
“It is totally clear what the Lukashenko regime and their allies are seeking, to test the unity of the West.”

US Intelligence Findings

US officials say President Vladimir Putin is considering an invasion next year with a total of 100 Battalion Tactical Groups. These groups can enter Ukraine from Russia, Crimea, and Belarus. Battalion Tactical Groups consist of artillery, air defense, and logistical support units. US officials say these groups are planning to enter Ukraine to occupy a large territory and stay there for months or even years.

US intelligence also suggests that Moscow has called up reservists to take part in these operations. The reservist’s role would be to secure territory as Russian battalions advance.

US Government Official Reactions

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said

“The truth is, we’re not sure exactly what Mr. Putin is up to. But these movements certainly have our attention and you know I would urge Russia to be more transparent about what they are up to and to take steps to live up to the MINSK agreements.”

US Secretary of state Antony Blinken said

“We don’t know what President Putin’s intentions are. But we do know what’s happened in the past. We do know the playbook of trying to cite some illusory provocation from Ukraine or any other country and using that as an excuse to do what Russia is planning to do all along.”

Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby said

“We do continue to see unusual military activity and concentration of forces in Russia. But near Ukrainian borders and that remain concerning to us.”

Russian Government Officials Reaction

Russia is accusing the US and its allies of the same provocation. Kremlin says Russian’s actions are only in response to NATO aggression to the activities of NATO ships in the Black Sea. The presence of British soldiers in Ukraine and NATO’s political and military buildup along the Russian border.

President of Russia Vladimir Putin wrote in an article in July.

“I said that Russian and Ukrainians were one people- a single whole.”

President of Russia Vladimir Putin said in a statement that

“We need to consider that western partners worsen the situation. They deliver modern lethal weapons to Kyiv and have provocative exercises in the Black Sea and other regions close to our borders.”

President of Russia Vladimir Putin said in a statement in April that

“I hope no one will cross Russia’s red line. But in each case, we are the ones who will decide where the red line is.”

Russian Defense Minister accused the US bombers of rehearsing a nuclear strike on Russia from two different directions earlier this month and complain that US bombers had come within 20km of the Russian border.

Pentagon said that these drills adhere to international protocol and had been publically announced at the time.

Meanwhile, reports have emerged of US top General Mark Milley speaking to the Russian top Military Officer Valerie Gerasimov.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said

“What is happening now in the world’s diplomacy had never happened before. That’s why there’s been a lot of slyness, desperate to explain something and against the backdrop of public accusation of Moscow in action. Such a stunning step has been made. Yes! It is unconventional for diplomacy. But from the other side, such an unconventionally sly situation requires unconventionally decisive actions. Ukraine likely pursued military solutions to their problems to create one more disaster for themselves and everyone in Europe. This is what Ukraine tends to achieve and it is trying to achieve it under the shelter of NATO exercise. NATO ship in the Blake Sea, British soldiers in the region with the number increasing that is Ukraine wants to achieve. And this is of course heartbreaking because this will entail serious consequences.”

British Government Reaction

Chair For UK Defense Select Committee Tobias Ellwood said

“Is this going to be the moment where we are going to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty, or are we going to step back and allow Russia to advance once again? As it did in Crimea, as it did in Georgia as well.”